26 Oct · 09:25 MEZMedium · Model Lean
VJ
🇨🇿Vaclav Hejda Jr
ELO 1537
FormWWLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Jr
PC
🇨🇿Petr Chlumsky
ELO 1451
FormWWLLW
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chlumsky🌟Chlumsky covers set handicap as underdog 68% (41)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+86
H2H31-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+86)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (31-15)