26 Oct · 09:40 MEZLow · Coin Flip
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1514
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Osvald
DO
🇨🇿David Osvald
ELO 1530
FormWLWLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lasota🌟Lasota covers set handicap as underdog 66% (76)
Fair odds · Osvald
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.