26 Oct · 07:40 MEZLow · Slight Edge
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1514
FormLLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Lasota
AD
🇨🇿Ales Drozd
ELO 1461
FormWWLLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Drozd🌟Drozd covers set handicap as underdog 63% (52)
Fair odds · Lasota
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H7-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.