26 Oct · 08:15 MEZLow · Coin Flip
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1569
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pawlik
BM
🇨🇿Bruno Mrowetz
ELO 1560
FormWLLWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Mrowetz
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.40· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H6-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.