26 Oct · 08:45 MEZLow · Slight Edge
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1611
FormWLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Benes
BM
🇨🇿Bruno Mrowetz
ELO 1560
FormWLLWW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Mrowetz
Fair odds · Benes
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.04· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+51
H2H24-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.