27 Oct · 08:55 MEZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇨🇿Michal Brozek
ELO 1605
FormWWWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Nadvornik
VN
🇨🇿Vaclav Nadvornik
ELO 1722
FormWLWWW
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Brozek
Fair odds · Nadvornik
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
19%
0-3
18%
3-1
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+117
H2H11-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+117)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-4)