28 Oct · 09:25 MEZLow · Slight Edge
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1416
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Dvorak
JD
🇨🇿Jakub Dvorak
ELO 1452
FormLLLWL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Filipek🌟Dvorak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (81)
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 63% · 1.59· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.