1 Nov · 20:40 MEZMedium · Model Lean
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1495
FormWWWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Matus
JO
🇨🇿Jan Oleksik
ELO 1423
FormLWLLW
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Oleksik🌟Oleksik covers set handicap as underdog 67% (24)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+72
H2H6-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+72)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-3)