1 Nov · 21:50 MEZLow · Slight Edge
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1592
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Vonasek
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1573
FormWWLWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sulc
Fair odds · Vonasek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 63% · 1.59· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H44-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.