2 Nov · 07:45 MEZLow · Slight Edge
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1629
FormWWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Gembala
BM
🇨🇿Bruno Mrowetz
ELO 1576
FormWWWWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Mrowetz🌟Gembala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (115)
Fair odds · Gembala
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.