2 Nov · 08:10 MEZLow · Coin Flip
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1499
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Strelec
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1486
FormWLLWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Matus🌟Matus covers set handicap as underdog 64% (78)
Fair odds · Strelec
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H21-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.