2 Nov · 09:45 MEZLow · Slight Edge
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1629
FormWWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Gembala
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1594
FormWLLWW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pawlik🌟Gembala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (115)
Fair odds · Gembala
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.