2 Nov · 17:10 MEZLow · Coin Flip
PJ
🇨🇿Patrik Jokiel
ELO 1502
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jokiel
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1494
FormLWWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ogrocki
Fair odds · Jokiel
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H14-31
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.