3 Nov · 11:25 MEZMedium · Model Lean
DV
🇨🇿David Vesecky
ELO 1640
FormWWWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Vesecky
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1580
FormLWLWL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Vesecky
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+60
H2H18-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-5)