3 Nov · 12:55 MEZMedium · Model Lean
LM
🇨🇿Ladislav Moravec
ELO 1390
FormLLWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Kral
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1459
FormLWLWW
44%
56%
🌟Kral goes over total as favourite 70% (114)
Fair odds · Kral
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+69
H2H17-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (17-3)