3 Nov · 12:40 MEZMedium · Model Lean
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1509
FormWWWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Mandrysz
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1432
FormLLLLL
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 63% (156)
Fair odds · Mandrysz
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+77
H2H38-31
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+77)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (38-31)