3 Nov · 16:20 MEZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇨🇿Michal Brozek
ELO 1555
FormLLWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Vesecky
DV
🇨🇿David Vesecky
ELO 1637
FormWLWWW
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Brozek
Fair odds · Vesecky
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~74 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+82
H2H51-26
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+82)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (51-26)