4 Nov · 12:10 MEZLow · Slight Edge
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1430
FormWLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sturma
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1451
FormLWWWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Sturma rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (117)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H44-67
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.