4 Nov · 07:40 MEZMedium · Model Lean
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1484
FormWLWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Matus
ZC
🇨🇿Zdenek Chovancik
ELO 1420
FormWLLLL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Matus
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+64
H2H6-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-3)