4 Nov · 14:15 MEZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1616
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Moravec
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1562
FormLLWLW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+54
H2H35-30
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.