4 Nov · 10:10 MEZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1451
FormLWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sturma
ZC
🇨🇿Zdenek Chovancik
ELO 1420
FormWLLLL
53%
47%
🌟Sturma rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (117)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H8-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.