4 Nov · 10:05 MEZMedium · Model Lean
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lovl
ELO 1625
FormWWLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Lovl
RN
🇨🇿Radek Neterda
ELO 1569
FormWLWWW
55%
45%
🌟Neterda covers set handicap as underdog 74% (68)
Fair odds · Lovl
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+56
H2H25-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+56)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (25-10)