4 Nov · 11:45 MEZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1524
FormWWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Benes
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1562
FormLLWLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krupnik
Fair odds · Benes
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H43-44
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.