4 Nov · 08:40 MEZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1484
FormWLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Matus
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1451
FormLWWWL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 63% (161)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H24-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.