4 Nov · 09:45 MEZLow · Slight Edge
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1627
FormWLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Gembala
AV
🇨🇿Anton Veliiev
ELO 1581
FormLLWLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Veliiev🌟Veliiev covers set handicap as underdog 74% (35)
Fair odds · Gembala
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.