4 Nov · 09:05 MEZMedium · Model Lean
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lovl
ELO 1625
FormWWLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Lovl
MF
🇨🇿Milan Flesar
ELO 1549
FormWLWWW
56%
44%
Fair odds · Lovl
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+76
H2H10-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+76)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-2)