4 Nov · 13:40 MEZLow · Slight Edge
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🇨🇿Ales Drozd
ELO 1473
FormLLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Drozd
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1430
FormWLLLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Jr covers set handicap as underdog 63% (150)
Fair odds · Drozd
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.