4 Nov · 09:35 MEZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jirasek Martin
ELO 1588
FormWWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Martin
RN
🇨🇿Radek Neterda
ELO 1569
FormWLWWW
52%
48%
🌟Neterda covers set handicap as underdog 74% (68)
Fair odds · Martin
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.