4 Nov · 15:25 MEZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kocab
ELO 1721
FormWLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kocab
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cerny
ELO 1666
FormLWWLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Kocab
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+55
H2H13-29
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.