4 Nov · 08:55 MEZMedium · Model Lean
VJ
🇨🇿Vaclav Hejda Jr
ELO 1483
FormLLLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Vonasek
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1562
FormLLWLL
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Jr covers set handicap as underdog 71% (198)
Fair odds · Vonasek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+79
H2H62-49
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+79)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (62-49)