4 Nov · 10:00 MEZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1599
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stepien
DS
🇨🇿Dawid Stapor
ELO 1588
FormWLWWW
51%
49%
🌟Stepien goes over total as favourite 67% (18)
Fair odds · Stepien
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.05· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H88-107
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.