5 Nov · 12:40 MEZLow · Slight Edge
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🇨🇿Ales Drozd
ELO 1473
FormLWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Drozd
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1437
FormLLWLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Drozd rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (86)
Fair odds · Drozd
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.