5 Nov · 09:40 MEZMedium · Model Lean
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1520
FormWLWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Strelec
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1437
FormLLWLW
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 63% (167)
Fair odds · Strelec
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+83
H2H12-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+83)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-7)