5 Nov · 17:15 MEZLow · Coin Flip
FC
🇨🇿Frantisek Chaloupka
ELO 1624
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Gembala
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1640
FormLWWWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chaloupka
Fair odds · Gembala
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H11-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.