5 Nov · 17:45 MEZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇨🇿David Stusek
ELO 1646
FormLWWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Stusek
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1640
FormLWWWW
50%
50%
🌟Gembala covers set handicap as underdog 66% (74)
Fair odds · Stusek
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 43% · 2.34· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H8-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.