5 Nov · 16:45 MEZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇨🇿David Stusek
ELO 1638
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stusek
BM
🇨🇿Borek Moravec
ELO 1628
FormLLLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Stusek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 48% · 2.08· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H4-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.