5 Nov · 18:20 MEZMedium · Model Lean
JO
🇨🇿Jan Osmera
ELO 1492
FormLLLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Holik
SH
🇨🇿Simon Holik
ELO 1559
FormWLWLL
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Osmera🌟Holik goes over total as favourite 65% (55)
Fair odds · Holik
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 51% · 1.96· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+67
H2H9-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Better recent form (2-3)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-7)