5 Nov · 21:55 MEZLow · Slight Edge
PV
🇨🇿Petr Vanek
ELO 1714
FormWWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Vanek
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cerny
ELO 1668
FormWLLWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Vanek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H36-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.