5 Nov · 23:40 MEZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1462
FormWWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Chmelicek
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vidourek
ELO 1435
FormLLWWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vidourek
Fair odds · Chmelicek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H12-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.