6 Nov · 13:55 MEZLow · Coin Flip
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1408
FormWWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Chlumsky
PC
🇨🇿Petr Chlumsky
ELO 1419
FormWLWWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Filipek🌟Chlumsky goes over total as favourite 67% (52)
Fair odds · Chlumsky
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H12-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.