6 Nov · 16:05 MEZMedium · Model Lean
RV
🇨🇿Richard Vavricka
ELO 1495
FormWWLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Vavricka
SM
🇨🇿Simon Mezlik
ELO 1420
FormLWLLL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Vavricka
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 68% · 1.47· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+75
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+75)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)