6 Nov · 20:35 MEZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1453
FormLWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Chmelicek
SM
🇨🇿Simon Mezlik
ELO 1420
FormLWLLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Chmelicek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H6-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.