6 Nov · 21:35 MEZLow · Coin Flip
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vidourek
ELO 1444
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Chmelicek
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1453
FormLWWWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vidourek
Fair odds · Chmelicek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H12-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.