6 Nov · 17:55 MEZLow · Slight Edge
AR
🇨🇿Adam Martin Rek
ELO 1618
FormWWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Rek
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1576
FormLWWLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Rek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~73 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H38-31
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.