8 Nov · 13:35 MEZMedium · Model Lean
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Manhal Jr
ELO 1450
FormWWLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Holub
MH
🇨🇿Matej Holub
ELO 1556
FormWWWWL
41%
59%
Fair odds · Holub
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+106
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+106)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)