8 Nov · 16:35 MEZLow · Coin Flip
DL
🇨🇿Dominik Lengal
ELO 1676
FormLLLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Lengal
FK
🇨🇿Filip Karel
ELO 1671
FormWWWWL
50%
50%
🌟Karel covers set handicap as underdog 75% (20)
Fair odds · Lengal
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~80 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H13-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.