8 Nov · 17:10 MEZLow · Slight Edge
DV
🇨🇿Daniel Vitasek
ELO 1551
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Vitasek
LD
🇨🇿Lukas Dzida
ELO 1504
FormLWLLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dzida
Fair odds · Vitasek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.