8 Nov · 18:35 MEZMedium · Model Lean
FK
🇨🇿Filip Karel
ELO 1671
FormWWWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Karel
MM
🇨🇿Martin Mastera
ELO 1594
FormLLWWL
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Mastera🌟Karel rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (44)
Fair odds · Karel
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+77
H2H11-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+77)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)