9 Nov · 13:20 MEZLow · Slight Edge
VJ
🇨🇿Vaclav Hejda Jr
ELO 1481
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Vonasek
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1523
FormLLLLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Jr covers set handicap as underdog 71% (206)
Fair odds · Vonasek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H62-50
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.