9 Nov · 19:40 MEZMedium · Model Lean
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1508
FormLWLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Ogrocki
KZ
🇨🇿Karel Zeman
ELO 1436
FormLLLLW
56%
44%
Fair odds · Ogrocki
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+72
H2H10-16
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+72)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)